Tour de France Preview and Predictions

It's almost that magical time of the year when we unwillingly learn about French châteaux, become temporary Francophones, get inexplicably excited by the sight of a middle aged man dressed as Satan and leave a musette bag out by the chimney for Bernard Hinault. Yes, it's Tour season.

And that means that every man and his dog are throwing around wild predictions. Well, neither myself nor my erstwhile colleague Mr Steel have a dog, but we do think we're smarter than we are, so here are our predictions for the 103rd Tour de France!

Kev says:

It's a typically stacked set of GC contenders for the biggest Grand Tour of them all, with most of the attention going on Sky's Chris Froome, Movistar's Nairo Quintana and Tinkoff's Alberto Contador. Contador's legs might not quite have enough in them for a Grand Tour victory, at least without some of the other contenders faltering. Froome's already won his third Criterium du Dauphine, and in the past that's meant he'll win that year's Tour. But Quintana has been ominously quiet all season, preferring to compete in lower level races, keeping to his own schedule. I'm on board with Quintana finally taking the top step on the Champs Elysees.

@Movistar_Team

Peter Sagan's surely such a lock for the green jersey that it doesn't even need justification, so any great insight will have to come from elsewhere. I've been really impressed with Louis Meintjes' development over the last year, and his move to Lampre-Merida seems to have given him a better chance at a solid GC finish. I'd expect to see him in the top 10 at the end of the race.

In a Grand Tour, there's almost always a big name that suffers, and this time round I see it being Astana in general, and Fabio Aru in particular. Taking Nibali, still probably not totally fresh from his Giro victory, could unsettle the notoriously volatile team, and Aru's always struck me as someone who can pick up scraps from other people's mistakes, but never quite capable of winning it in his own right.

Andy says:

Although Nairo Quintana pushed him hard last summer, I'm still tipping Chris Froome to come out top of the pile come Paris. The Brit scooped the Criterium du Dauphine in convincing style, with Sky showing yet again that they are a formidable cohesive unit and I'm expecting that to be the difference to see him pip the ever dangerous Colombian. But only just.

Barring, as Peter would say, 'unluck', the green jersey already has Sagan's name on it. Not only is he almost certain to be mixing it up at the head of the bunch sprints, he's also the only sprinter capable of racing up the punchier climbs and, therefore, hoover up the important intermediate points ahead of his more purebred sprint rivals.

skysports.com

Tours always throw up a few surprises and this year I think LottoNL-Jumbo's young Wilco Kelderman can build on his quietly promising form and break into the top 10. On the other side of the coin, BMC  could find themselves split between Richie Porte and Tejay van Garderen as their GC focus. If Porte is to finally show himself as a Grand Tour leader, he will need the full support for his team, and any hesitation on their part could see his hopes suffer.

Prediction roundup:
Winner: 
Kev: Quintana

Andy: Froome

Green jersey:
Kev: Sagan

Andy: Sagan

Top 10 finisher:
Kev: Meintjes

Andy: Kelderman

Letdown:
Kev: Aru

Andy: Porte