My immediate instinct says Vincenzo Nibali. The Astana rider has by far the best Grand Tour pedigree of anyone in the race, having won all three, including the Giro in 2013. And with all due respect to the riders in this year's running, you could make a solid argument for Nibali to be the only true superstar in the GC contenders.
But for all the signs (including the massive home support) for Nibali, he's had an unremarkable season so far. His only win of note this year has been the overall in the Tour of Oman back in February. Sixth in the Tirreno-Adriatico two months ago does not suggest that his preparations have gone exactly to plan.
The same is most certainly not true of Alejandro Valverde, Movistar's preference for the race. After a quiet start to the season, Valverde hit form massively in April, winning the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon before showing he has his racecraft down by winning a sprint in La Fleche Wallonne after race-long pressure from Etixx-QuickStep.
While Astana's faith in Nibali seems to be waning, especially after some ill will between himself and Fabio Aru last year, Valverde's stock within Movistar seems to be rising as he heads towards the last few years of his career. The 2009 Vuelta a Espana winner has a strong team behind him, with Jose Joaquin Rojas, Carlos Betancur and Jose Herrada all likely to make themselves useful over the course of the next three weeks.
Movistar Team
Team Sky's bid for a first Grand Tour outside France is spearheaded by Mikel Landa, the man signed in the winter from Tinkoff for exactly this reason following third in last year's Giro. Whether Sky can successfully split their focus between Landa and sprinter Elia Viviani remains to be seen, but the team including Nicholas Roche,
Tinkoff are in the unusual position of not being in the upper echelons of either the GC or sprint riders going into a Grand Tour. Rafal Majka has just one GT podium to his name, last year's Vuelta where many teams capitulated, so 7th and 6th in the 2013 and 14 Giros may be a truer sign of his level, and he may need others to falter in order to reach his target of the podium.
On the sprint side of things, the maglia rossa is more than likely to end up across the shoulders of Marcel Kittel. The German has recovered from his disastrous 2015 season incredibly, leading Etixx-QuickStep to stage wins and overall victories already. With his sprint train already formed around him, you have to wonder who can stop him.
ANSA
The answer may come from his compatriot Andre Greipel. The Gorilla had a superb 2015, winning a stage in the Giro and four in the Tour, keeping the green jersey off Peter Sagan there for six days. Watching the two big Germans battling it out should be a real sight.
Elsewhere, this could be the year when Caleb Ewan announces himself on the world stage. After dominating in the early season in his native Australia, the diminutive Orica-GreenEDGE man might just spring a surprise by nipping through past his much larger rivals, and leaving a much smaller hole in the air to slipstream off.
We won't get any definite answers on any of these issues for a couple of weeks at least, more than likely, and obviously there's always the possibility for someone to spring a shock. Maybe Tom Dumoulin can recreate his astonishing Vuelta a Espana last year. Will Giacomo Nizzolo repeat his points jersey win from last year by pure attrition? Has Ilnur Zakarin's good form set him up for a Grand Tour podium?
There's only one way to find out.
Kev's Giro Predictions:
General Classification
1. Alejandro Valverde (MOV)
2. Vincenzo Nibali (AST)
3. Mikel Landa (SKY)
Points Classification
Marcel Kittel (EQS)
Biggest Surprise
Jay McCarthy (CPT)
Biggest Letdown
Lampre-Merida
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