Giro d'Italia Stages 20-21 - Nibali completes remarkable comeback

With three days left in the Giro d'Italia, Vincenzo Nibali had looked out of contention for a second Giro d'Italia title. He was languishing in fourth place, 4 minutes and 43 seconds down on Esteban Chaves and the pink jersey. He'd been labelled as weak as he'd slipped backwards in the previous few days, and doubts were being raised as to whether he was even fit enough to complete the race.

I started last time by saying 'never discount Vincenzo Nibali', and that bears repeating. His struggles in the middle week of the Giro did indeed have him on the ropes, but they merely served to set up one of the all-time great Grand Tour recoveries. 

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The decisive moment of stage 20, and ultimately the overall race, came when Nibali, driven along all day by his Astana teammates, attacked on the Colle della Lombarda, the third of the stage's four climbs, taking with him Chaves and Alejandro Valverde, who was aiming to take the last podium spot from Steven Kruijswijk.

First Valverde was dropped, and then a final attack was enough to drop Chaves off Nibali's wheel. The Italian kicked on, slowly increasing his lead. Eyes turned to the clock as Chaves slipped further back, his 44 second lead under serious threat.

Up the road, Rein Taaramae was busy taking the stage win, going some way to cheering his Katusha team after Ilnur Zakarin's violent exit from the race on stage 19. The Estonian had had a quiet season up to this point since his move from Astana in the winter. 

A few minutes behind, Nibali had built up enough of a gap that he was in the virtual lead of the race, but as he crossed the line he had to sit and wait for Chaves to finish before knowing for certain. It soon became obvious that Chaves wouldn't make it, eventually finishing a minute and a half behind Nibali, along with Nibali's teammate Michele Scarponi, who punched the air at a job well done as he rolled over the line. 

We'll write more on Nibali's victory in the future, but for now it's enough to say that it's been a testament to his courage and determination. He was perhaps regarded as a step below Froome, Contador and Quintana in the absolute elite in the peloton, but while the field may not have been as strong as some other recent Grand Tours, I honestly don't think anyone else would have been able to motivate themselves to pull back the huge amounts of time Nibali has done.

It could well be a win that changes how Grand Tours are raced. Hindsight suggests that Nibali had saved himself all race for these two key mountain stages, willing to sacrifice time early on for freshness on the big slopes of the Alps. And future contenders left trailing behind in the last stages of a Grand Tour now have a recent precedent for mounting an unlikely, but not impossible, comeback.

Of course, Nibali's win couldn't be confirmed until after the final stage, held in Turin this year rather than Milan. Nibali rode on a garish, metallic pink Specialized to celebrate his victory, supposedly matching his maglia rosa,. I'd urge you to make your own judgement on that one.

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The final stage itself was won by Giacomo Nizzolo (TFS), finally taking his first Grand Tour stage win in his fifth year of trying. Or so it appeared. On the sweeping run to the line, Nizzolo squeezed Sacha Modolo (LAM) against the railings. 

My first instinct was that it deserved a sanction, but an Italian's first win in the final stage of the Giro would be a hard one to overrule. As it turned out, the commissaires were stronger than I'd given them credit for, dropping Nizzolo to 12th behind official winner Nikias Arndt (TGA), and putting a significant damper on Nizzolo's second straight points classification win.

But nothing could dampen Vincenzo Nibali's celebrations, as he crossed the line arm in arm with Scarponi and Andrey Zeits. Esteban Chaves finished well away from Nibali after the stage's GC times were frozen, securing second place after a very strong Giro, while Alejandro Valverde made it onto the podium at the expense of Steven Kruijswijk, whose brave attempt to defend his maglia rosa will fade to a footnote, rather than grow into legend.

General Classification final standings

1. Vincenzo Nibali (AST) 86:32:39

2. Esteban Chaves (OGE) + :52

3. Alejandro Valverde (MOV) + 1:17

4. Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) + 1:50

5. Rafal Majka (TNK) + 4:37

6. Bob Jungels (EQS) + 8:31

7. Rigoberto Uran (CPT) + 11:47

8. Andrey Amador (MOV) + 13:21

9. Darwin Atapuma (BMC) + 14:09

10. Kanstantsin Siutsou (DDD) + 16:20

Sprint Classification final standings

1. Giacomo Nizzolo (TFS) 209

2. Matteo Trentin (EQS) 184

3. Sacha Modolo (LAM) 163

King of the Mountains final standings

1. Mikel Nieve (SKY) 152

2. Damiano Cunego (NIP) 134

3. Darwin Atapuma (BMC) 118

Giro d'Italia Stage 19 - Kruijswijk crashes and cracks

Note to self: never discount Vincenzo Nibali.

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Further note: don't exaggerate things in order to get an eyecatching opening. I'd always thought that in the last few days of this Giro, we'd see at least one of Nibali and Alejandro Valverde taking big chunks of time out of Steven Kruijswijk. What I didn't know was if those chunks of time would be big enough.

I definitely didn't expect yesterday.

What could prove to be the defining moment of this year's Giro came on a standard-looking right hander on a fast descent, as Kruijswijk slightly overcooked it, and went into a big snow bank by the side of the road, flipping him right over his handlebars. Kruijswijk got back up and onto the bike, but the damage was already done, as he'd dropped a minute to Nibali and Esteban Chaves.

It may not feel like it right now, but Kruijswijk was comparatively lucky. At around the same time, Ilnur Zakarin went off, but instead of a wall of snow, he went down a grass slope, breaking his collarbone in the process, immediately ending what had looked a solid if unspectacular Giro to that point.

Having got back in the saddle, with a bloodied arm and leg (as well as a cracked rib that would be discovered later), Kruijswijk either couldn't get his rhythm back, or simply didn't have it in him. Valverde, who had looked in big trouble before the crash as he looked set to drop more time to the leader, was next to slip past the Dutchman, followed by former leader Bob Jungels.

Up front, Nibali and Chaves kept up a relentless pace, the Italian defying his doubters by kicking on again as the stage came to a close, jumping clear of Chaves after two attacks up the final climb up to Risoul. Nibali was almost a minute clear of Chaves, who was beaten into second by Mikel Nieve (SKY).

After taking the win, a tough last few days caught up with Nibali, who burst into tears as his dreams of winning his second Giro, which looked dim at best a couple of days ago, came sharply into focus, as he now lies second, just 44 seconds behind Chaves.

Kruijswijk, meanwhile, did manage to cling onto a podium spot, for the time being at least. He seemed a broken man as he crossed the line, but limited his losses enough to keep his nose in front of Valverde overnight. He's been declared fit to ride in the penultimate stage, but due to the injuries he picked up in his crash yesterday who knows if he'll be able to truly compete.

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It'd be especially cruel for Kruijswijk if he didn't even get a podium to show for his efforts, or even be able to finish the race he's led for several days. But grand tours are inherently tough and unforgiving, and Kruijswijk has learned the hard way that a tiny loss in concentration can ruin three weeks' hard work.

As for the pink jersey he surrendered to Chaves, today's Stage 20 should be the one where it's decided, barring a final stage dash for the line. Nibali will be his main challenger at less than a minute down, but expect a huge effort from Movistar to try to get Valverde past at least one of them. Just make sure you pay attention.

Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ):
"I fucked up. A stupid mistake. I hurt so much.

"I made a wrong move and crashed in that wall of snow. After I started riding, everything hurt. I felt pain in my back and my ribs, and my morale was broken. I knew that I had lost time and tried to move on, but it was over. I lost my Giro today."

General Classification
1. Esteban Chaves (OGE) 78:14:20
2. Vincenzo Nibali (AST) + :44
3. Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) + 1:05
4. Alejandro Valverde (MOV) + 1:48
5. Rafal Majka (TNK) + 3:59
6. Bob Jungels (EQS) + 7:53
7. Andrey Amador (MOV) + 9:34
8. Rigoberto Uran (CPT) + 12:18
9. Kanstantsin Siutsou (DDD) + 13:19
10. Domenico Pozzovivo (ALM) + 14:11

Sprint Classification
1. Giacomo Nizzolo (TFS) 185
2. Diego Ulissi (LAM) 152
3. Matteo Trentin (EQS) 141

King of the Mountains
1. Damiano Cunego (NIP) 134
2. Mikel Nieve (SKY) 98
3. Stefan Denifl (IAM) 73

Giro d'Italia Stages 16-18 - Kruijswijk withstands pressure

We'll get to yesterday's events in a while, but first a recap of the previous three days of the 2016 Giro d'Italia. Steven Kruijswijk had been the leader through the rest day after an outstanding mountain time trial, holding over two minutes over his nearest challenger, Esteban Chaves (OGE).

The Dutchman would have expected attacks aplenty on Tuesday's Stage 16, and they did indeed come thick and fast. Kruijswijk stayed near the front of the elite group all day, chasing down attacks from Ilnur Zakarin, Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde before they had chance to even think they were getting clear.

Perhaps it was a joint effort to weaken the maglia rosa, and perhaps chip away at his advantage on the final climb, but when Valverde and Zakarin attacked together on the final climb it was Kruijswijk who went with them, leaving Chaves and Nibali decidedly gapped.

Not looking like taking anything but bonus seconds out of the leader, Valverde pushed on to at least take some time back on Chaves and Nibali, charging up to the finish, at a pace too fast for Zakarin, but with Kruijswijk on his tail. Valverde won the stage, his first ever in the Giro, in a sprint from Kruijswijk, 42 seconds ahead of Chaves and 1:47 ahead of Nibali.

Nibali's poor performance came under intense scrutiny by the Italian press, with many suggesting he should withdraw, a typically kneejerk reaction from the Italians. For his part, Nibali merely held his hands up and admitted it was a bad day on the bike, and underwent tests on Thursday which revealed no underlying physical reasons for his time loss.

With his lead now at exactly 3 minutes over Chaves, Kruijswijk was able to relax in Stage 17, a flat stage which looked all set to be one for the sprinters, but, after a large break was caught close to the line, another attack formed, from which Roger Kluge took a bittersweet win for IAM Cycling, the day after the announcement that the team would fold at the end of the season.

Stage 18 was another push for the GC standings, as Kruijswijk was again well protected by his team, and a match for any attacks that came on what was an unthreatening stage on paper. His lead in the GC standings remained untouched as he rolled in with his challengers, some 13 minutes down on the stage winner, Matteo Trentin.

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Trentin's win was Etixx-QuickStep's fourth of a very strong Giro for them, but all the focus was on the underdog Kruijswijk, and whether he could cling on to his 3:00 lead over the next two days. Wouldn't it be a brilliant story if he could...?

General Classification
1. Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) 73:50:37
2. Esteban Chaves (OGE) + 3:00
3. Alejandro Valverde (MOV) + 3:23
4. Vincenzo Nibali (AST) + 4:43
5. Ilnur Zakarin (KAT) + 4:50
6. Rafal Majka (SKY) + 5:34
7. Bob Jungels (EQS) + 7:57
8. Andrey Amador (MOV) + 8:53
9. Domenico Pozzovivo (ALM) + 10:05
10. Kanstantsin Siutsou (DDD) + 11:15

Sprint Classification
1. Giacomo Nizzolo (TFS) 185
2. Matteo Trentin (EQS) 141
3. Diego Ulissi (LAM) 137

King of the Mountains
1. Damiano Cunego (NIP) 134
2. Stefan Denifl (IAM) 72
3. Darwin Atapuma (BMC) 69

Giro d'Italia Stages 13-15 - Kruijswijk to the fore

The maglia rosa changed hands twice more in the three days before the rest day, with Andrey Amador (MOV) and Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) becoming the fifth and sixth riders to wear the pink jersey in the first 15 days of the race.

Amador took the lead after Stage 13, when race leader Bob Jungels (EQS) was dropped by the favourites on the final climb, finishing 50 seconds behind the group and over two minutes behind stage winner, Sky's Mikel Nieve, giving Sky something to cheer after a hugely disappointing Giro following Landa's withdrawal.

Stage 14 had been tagged pre-race as the queen stage, and it certainly proved to be a stage that sent shockwaves through the GC battle. Esteban Chaves won for Orica-GreenEDGE, just fending off Kruijswijk and Georg Preidler (TGA) to take a memorable win.

Behind them, the other GC contenders were attacking each other. Overnight leader Amador dropped off the GC group before managing to claw his way back, only to drop back later in the stage. Nibali looked game all day, attacking with Kruijswijk some 30km from the finish, but unable to match the Dutchman's pace as the attack continued.

Movistar, meanwhile, were in trouble. With Amador lagging, it seemed that the way was clear for Alejandro Valverde to finally assert himself as Movistar's sole leader, but his legs failed him too on the Passo Valparola, ultimately costing him over three minutes with Kruijswijk's bonus seconds taken into account.

With Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka finishing together, just 30 seconds ahead of Valverde, it was Nibali who limited his losses the best of the other GC contenders, but he still lost 43 seconds to Kruijswijk, who overtook everyone to take the maglia rosa by 41 seconds from Nibali, 90 from Chaves and 3 minutes clear of the rest, still led by Valverde.

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Stage 15 was the hotly anticipated mountain time trial, and Kruijswijk managed to put even more time into those chasing him in the General Classification. The Dutchman blitzed almost everyone, beaten by only the impressive Alexander Foliforov of Gazprom-Rusvelo. Valverde made up time on the rest of the contenders, finishing third, and around 30 seconds ahead of a cluster of GC contenders including Chaves, Zakarin, and Majka.

Another poor day on the bike for Amador dropped him to five minutes back in the standings, now a distant seventh, and two minutes behind Valverde, who must now get the full backing of Movistar if they have any intention to leave Italy with the maglia rosa.

But as far as poor days go, Vincenzo Nibali had a time trial that may well prove to have cost him the 2016 Giro d'Italia. He lost over two minutes to Kruijswijk after a disastrous day, where he was already almost a minute behind the leader's time before his chain slipped.

As his rear wheel seized, Nibali threw his bike aside in frustration, His team provided him with a new bike quickly, but the damage was already done, as Nibali remained third in GC but slipped to nearly three minutes behind the leader.

So from being unfancied, Kruijswijk's guts and determination have given him a significant lead in the General Classification, one which looks distinctly defendable over the last week, with pre-race favourites Nibali and Valverde both needing to rescue around three minutes to get back in the hunt. Chaves is closer, around a minute ahead of the elite pair. A Giro that had looked to be a duel is now tantalisingly set with just six days' racing to go.

General Classification
1. Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) 60:41:22
2. Esteban Chaves (OGE) + 2:12
3. Vincenzo Nibali (AST) + 2;51
4. Alejandro Valverde (MOV) + 3:29
5. Rafal Majka (TNK) + 4:38
6. Ilnur Zakarin (KAT) + 4:40
7. Andrey Amador (MOV) + 5:27
8. Bob Jungels (EQS) + 7:14
9. Kanstantsin Siutsou (DDD) + 7:37
10. Jakob Fuglsang (AST) + 7:55

Sprint Classification
1. Giacomo Nizzolo (TFS) 138
2. Diego Ulissi (LAM) 112
3. Sacha Madolo (LAM) 84

King of the Mountains
1. Damiano Cunego (NIP) 134
2. Stefan Denifl (IAM) 72
3. Darwin Atapuma (BMC) 69

Giro d'Italia Stages 10-12 - Abandons Aplenty

The race gets tougher, and over the last few days we've seen three high profile names withdraw from the Giro d'Italia. On Tuesday's Stage 10, Mikel Landa (SKY) withdrew, followed by Tom Dumoulin (TGA) on Stage 11, and Andre Greipel (LTS) immediately after winning Stage 12.

Landa had suffered from gastroenteritis over the rest day, and halfway through Stage 10, after dropping well off the back of the peloton he pulled over and abandoned the stage. His Giro had been a quiet one up to that point anyway, having been a solid if unspectacular 8th overall and tracking attacks, rather than making them himself. Perhaps he was playing a long game, saving himself for the big climbs next week, but Team Sky's wait for a Grand Tour outside France goes on all the same.

Tim de Waele

Stage 10 itself was won by Giulio Ciccone, the fifth straight year a Bardiani-CSF has won a stage at the Giro, He won after joining the break, and broke clear after a strong descent before the final climb, with around three minutes over the elite group, led by Andrey Amador after a late attack. He and his Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde picked up a handful of seconds over Vincenzo Nibali and the rest on the run up to the finish, as the team made their intentions clear.

One man who was not in that group was Tom Dumoulin, the Dutchman finishing 13 minutes behind Ciccone despite his team's best efforts. Dumoulin had suffered from saddle sores for several days, and after not recovering over the rest day, Dumoulin withdrew overnight before Stage 11. We covered Dumoulin last time out, so to avoid treading old ground I'll just direct you there, with a note that Dumoulin should perhaps plan his races better, either focusing on GC or stage wins. Splitting his efforts does not seem to be within his capabilities right now.

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Race leader Gianluca Brambilla was also unable to keep pace with the leaders in Stage 10 (albeit nowhere near to Dumoulin's extent), meaning the maglia rosa passed to his teammate Bob Jungels. Jungels is the third Etixx-QuickStep rider to wear pink in this Giro, an outstanding achievement, and testament to the team's depth of quality.

Jungels has looked strong since taking the jersey, and indeed extended his lead over the favourites in Stage 11, finishing third in a sprint between himself, Amador and stage winner Diego Ulissi (LAM), his second win of the Giro. Stage 12 was one for the sprinters, so Jungels retains the lead, and with Brambilla now almost 3 minutes back and Kittel long gone from the race, Etixx-QuickStep will be able to fully focus on keeping the jersey on the Luxembourg rider's back.

Andre Greipel won Stage 12 after squeezing out Caleb Ewan (OGE) in the final sprint, and then in the post-race interviews announced that, according to Lotto-Soudal's pre-race plans, he would be withdrawing from the Giro d'Italia.

As with Dumoulin, this is something I touched on earlier in the Giro when Kittel withdrew, but it bears repeating here. Despite what he said about it not being disrespectful to the Giro organisers and the race itself, personally, I think it's terrible. Withdrawing because you're exhausted and physically can't continue is one thing, but pre-planning to withdraw is something else entirely. If you don't intend to see out the whole race, don't race.

Again, the Tour of California has equally good opportunities for sprinters, and is much shorter than the Giro, running at the same time. If Greipel and Kittel couldn't hack a full three week race, especially considering they're looking at races later in the season (whether the Tour, the Olympics or the Worlds) then go for the shorter race and let the guys capable of making it to Milan fight out the Giro stages. With these sort of snubs, the Giro is in real danger of being seen as irrelevant compared to the other two Grand Tours, and that saddens me.

General Classification
1. Bob Jungels (EQS) 49:32:20
2. Andrey Amador (MOV) + :24
3. Alejandro Valverde (MOV) + 1:07
4. Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) + 1:07
5. Vincenzo Nibali (AST) + 1:09
6. Rafal Majka (TNK) + 2:01
7. Ilnur Zakarin (KAT) + 2:25
8. Esteban Chaves (OGE) + 2:43
9. Gianluca Brambilla (EQS) + 2:45
10. Diego Ulissi (LAM) + 2:47

Points Classification
1. Giacomo Nizzolo (TFS) 138
2. Arnaud Demare (FDJ) 111
3. Diego Ulissi (LAM) 100

King of the Mountains
1. Damiano Cunego (NIP) 56
2. Giulio Ciccone (BAR) 27
3. Tim Wellens (LTS) 25

Giro d'Italia Stages 8-9 - The Fall and Rise of Tom Dumoulin

What a weekend it's been for Tom Dumoulin. The Giant-Alpecin rider cracked massively on the Alpe di Poti yesterday, dropping outside the top 10 in GC, before clawing back a big chunk of that time in today's time trial in Chianti. Meanwhile, his leader's pink jersey went to Gianluca Brambilla (EQS), after a gritty solo effort.

Brambilla's attack was hugely impressive, punching out of the break with 25km to go, but attention was taken away by Dumoulin's struggles further back. Movistar had kept Jose Joaquin Rojas and Andrey Amador in the elite group along with their leader Alejandro Valverde, and they chose the Alpe di Poti as the time to attack the maglia rosa.

Dumoulin had looked to be struggling throughout the early part of the stage, and simply did not have enough in the tank to respond. He dropped first off the back of the elite group, then dropping back from the chasing group, eventually settling with Matteo Trentin (EQS) and Manuele Boaro (TNK), before they, too, crept away.

It was hard viewing, as Dumoulin gradually lost more and more time to the riders tracking him in the GC standings. He eventually managed to halt his time loss at around a minute, although whether this was more down to his efforts or the elite group slowing down was hard to judge.

I can't remember such a dramatic chunk of time lost this early into a Grand Tour by someone regarded as a GC contender. That being said, is he, really? His constant insistence that he's not been looking to the GC may have just been trying to deflect any pressure onto the other riders, but it does appear to be a legitimate claim after all, despite the Giro's three time trials this year.

Suggestions as Dumoulin cracked were that it might impact his time trial the next day. True, Dumoulin was some way off the pace of Primoz Roglic (TLJ), the man who he just pipped in stage 1 and who won stage 9's ITT comfortably from Matthias Brandle (IAM).

Tim de Waele

A heavy spell of rain caused the top GC contenders some serious problems, none of them able to attack the corners as much as the earlier riders. Ilnur Zakarin (KAT) was one of the big losers in the wet, falling twice and losing a minute and a half to his GC rivals. But Dumoulin went some way to burying the bad memories of the day before. The Dutchman finished 1 minute 58 down on Roglic, but crucially pulled back around 20 seconds on Vincenzo Nibali (AST) and Valverde.

After the minute lost on Saturday, it's still not a good situation for Dumoulin and the GC hopes he may or may not have. Surely his best chance of success was for him to build up a lead in the two first time trials, coupled with his punchy attack in stage 4, and then hope to cling on over the last week of the Giro. With that lead gone, and his energy reserves clearly already sapped, his slide down the standings seems inevitable.

Perhaps most significant from the weekend is Nibali and Valverde distancing themselves from their rivals, with the Italian leapfrogging the Spaniard into 5th overall. Mikel Landa (SKY) stayed in touch, but Rafal Majka (TNK) dropped almost a minute to the duo that seems set to fight out the GC battle between them.

Other notes from this weekend are that my pick for the points jersey, Marcel Kittel, withdrew overnight, citing exhaustion from his hectic early season. I've never been a fan of sprinters turning up to the first part of stage races and withdrawing as soon as the road gets bumpy, especially with the sprinter-friendly and arguably higher-quality Tour of California starting today. It just seems a bit disingenuous and disrespectful to the Giro itself. Rant over for now.

And another mention for our current pink jersey holder Gianluca Brambilla. Brambilla wasn't fancied by many to hold the maglia rosa in his home country, but the timing of his attack earned it, and he did a great job in the ITT to keep it off his teammate Bob Jungels. Two leader's jerseys in one Grand Tour is a great step up in results for a team that had been misfiring in the first few months of the year.

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Stage 10 comes after the race's second rest day, giving riders chance to recover before a day of climbs and descents, with four categorised climbs and a summit finish suggesting another day for the punchers, with a possibility of some GC time gaps.

General Classification
1. Gianluca Brambilla (EQS) 34:33:04
2. Bob Jungels (EQS) + :01
3. Andrey Amador (MOV) + :32
4. Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) + :51
5. Vincenzo Nibali (AST) + :53
6. Alejandro Valverde (MOV) + :55
7. Tom Dumoulin (TGA) + :58
8. Mikel Landa (SKY) + 1:18
9. Rafal Majka (TNK) + 1:45
10. Jakob Fuglsang (AST) + 1:51

Sprint Classification
1. Andre Greipel (LTS) 119
2. Arnaud Demare (FDJ) 91
3. Maarten Tjallingii (TLJ) 82

King of the Mountains
1. Tim Wellens (LTS) 21
2. Damiano Cunego (NIP) 20
3. Gianluca Brambilla (EQS) 16

Giro d'Italia Stages 4-7 - A Lotto Success

After the Dutch stages of the Giro were dominated by Marcel Kittel, the transfer to Italy before day 4 gave everyone a chance to take a breath and plan for the week ahead, where hills reared their heads for the first time.

The last three days have seen the podium monopolised by Lotto-Soudal, with two wins for Andre Greipel and one for Tim Wellens. Lotto-Soudal always seem to be right on the money tactically, and these few days have really seen them reap the rewards for their organisation.

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But before that, a word on the leader during the international transfer, Marcel Kittel. I asked last time who could stop him, and the answer appears to be himself. Or at least, his own limitations as a rider. A terrifying unit of a man, he was never really likely to make it through the mountains with the pink jersey still on his back, losing a handful of minutes in both stages 4 and 6.

5 and 7 looked a lot more achievable for sprinters (and indeed being won by his compatriot Greipel), but Kittel simply could not haul his large frame over the hills quick enough to stay with the other sprinters in stage 5, and a big effort to stay at the front in stage 7 was scuppered by a puncture with 5km to go yesterday.

With Kittel out of the equation, Tom Dumoulin (TGA) has regained the maglia rosa, finishing at the front of the elite group in stage 4 behind stage winner Diego Ulissi (LAM). Let's gloss over my pre-race prediction that Lampre-Merida would be anonymous throughout the Giro.

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Stage 6 was the first to really shake up the GC, and as he did in the Vuelta last year, Dumoulin took the early opportunity to put himself at the front. He attacked late in stage 6, taking chunks of time out of Rafal Majka (TNK), Alejandro Valverde (MOV), Mikel Landa (SKY) and Vincenzo Nibali (AST). Or, to phrase it another way, outperforming what could be a likely top 4 in the final GC standings.

Ilnur Zakarin (KAT) might take issue with that last statement, as he and AG2R's Domenico Pozzovivo stayed with and ultimately just beat Dumoulin, the Russian in particular building on his good early season form, and currently sits a solid 3rd in the standings, 13 seconds ahead of Valverde and 19 clear of Nibali. He can afford to track the big names in the next mountain stage before deciding when to attack.

Before we stop talking about stage 6, chapeau to Tim Wellens, who took his first Grand Tour stage win, and what a win it was. He attacked from the breakaway, something which he's no stranger to doing, but on this occasion nobody had anything approaching an answer. Wellens won the stage by well over a minute from Jakob Fuglsang (AST) and Zakarin. Debate over whether he was allowed to stay out front because he's not a GC threat should not diminish the plaudits for as well-deserved a win as you'll see this year.

Stages 5 and 7 were ones for the sprinters, and as I said earlier, both times Lotto-Soudal had their tactics spot on. They protected Andre Greipel through the hills before the finishes, and he won stage 5 just as dominantly as Kittel had a few days earlier, launching a very early sprint, and never looking like being caught.

Stage 7 was harder work for Greipel, who lost his lead out man in the pushing and shoving inside the last few hundred metres. Caleb Ewan (OGE) was at the front of the race, with Greipel looking bunched in and out of it. I've watched the finish a few times now and I'm still not sure how, but Greipel surged past everyone and took another convincing win. I don't know what they feed their sprint prospects in Germany, but whatever it is, it works.

Today's stage 8 probably won't do a lot to the GC, with the principle riders saving themselves for Sunday's much anticipated time trial in the chianti vineyards. With the first true mountain stage not coming until next Saturday, whoever leaves the vineyards in the lead will fancy themselves to keep it for a few more days.

Can Dumoulin produce more heroics, to provide writers with something to keep the words 'Vuelta 2015' away from his name for the rest of eternity? Will someone conveniently happen to break down next to a barrel of nicely aged wine? Probably not, but wouldn't it be nice?

General Classification
1. Tom Dumoulin (TGA) 29:23:23
2. Jakob Fuglsang (AST) + :26
3. Ilnur Zakarin (KAT) + :28
4. Bob Jungels (EQS) + :35
5. Steven Kruijswijk (TLJ) + :38
6. Alejandro Valverde (MOV) + :41
7. Diego Ulissi (LAM) + :41
8. Vincenzo Nibali (AST) + :47
9. Kanstantsin Siutsou (DDD) + :49
10. Rigoberto Uran (CPT) + :51

Sprint Classification
1. Andre Greipel (LTS) 119
2. Marcel Kittel (EQS) 106
3. Arnaud Demare (FDJ) 91

King of the Mountains
1. Tim Wellens (LTS) 21
2. Damiano Cunego (NIP) 20
3. Alessandro Bisolti (NIP) 16

Giro d'Italia Stages 1-3 - The Kittel Show

Marcel Kittel is the best sprinter in the world.

giroditalia.it

I had to get that out of the way at the start, because, like me, several of you might have forgotten that tiny little fact after last season, when a combination of illness, bad luck, lack of support and understandably poor form meant that he won just two sprints all year.

He's already matched that in this year's Giro inside the first three stages. The opening stage in Apeldoorn was a time trial, won by Tom Dumoulin (TGA) by just one hundredth of a second from Primoz Roglic (TLJ), with Fabian Cancellara a disappointing 14 seconds down on the Dutchman's time.

More significant with regards to the pink jersey was that Kittel (EQS) posted a very impressive 11 minutes and 14 seconds, just 11 off the lead and putting him well within striking distance of the maglia rosa with two sprint stages to follow.

And so it came to be. Stage 2 looked set for an intriguing finish, with the FDJ squad placed very prominently in the run in to Nijmegen. Round the final sweeping right hander, Arnaud Demare looked set for a perfect leadout from his French squad, while Kittel lost the wheel of his lead out man, instead being forced to follow Demare.

But with 150m to go, Kittel launched his final sprint, bursting clear by several bike lengths almost instantly. I described him as seemingly having pressed a 'win' button, and had he not celebrated a long way before the line I honestly believe he could have created a time gap to Demare, which could have put him in the maglia rosa on day 3. As it was, Kittel would wear the red sprinters' jersey instead.

giroditalia.it

The next stage was just as much a formality as Stage 2 was. Tellingly, again Kittel did not have the wheel of his leadout man Fabio Sabatini, and was tracked by Giacomo Nizzolo (TFS) and Elia Viviani (SKY), but still, once his massive legs started pumping there was never any doubt. He opened up a lead of two bike lengths almost immediately, again having plenty of time to celebrate before crossing the line.

The two stage wins, and accompanying bonus seconds, meant that his 11 second deficit to Dumoulin after the time trial became a nine second lead in the GC standings, meaning the big German wears the maglia rosa tomorrow after today's rest day. Whether he can keep it over the next couple of days will be an interesting question, with a few nasty climbs tomorrow and a rolling stage 5, and Kittel's priorities between holding the pink jersey and staying fresh for the red will be tested.

But as far as those future sprint stages go, there is one thing that must genuinely worry the rest of the spinters. Kittel has won both sprints so far convincingly without a perfect leadout. If he gets one in the next few weeks, time gaps may be a distinct possibility.

General Classification
1. Marcel Kittel (EQS) 9:13:10
2. Tom Dumoulin (TGA) + :09
3. Andrey Amador (MOV) + :15
4. Tobias Ludvigsson (TGA) + :17
5. Moreno Moser (CPT) + :21
6. Bob Jungels (EQS) + :22
7. Matthias Brandle (IAM) + :23
8. Roger Kluge (IAM) + :25
9. Chad Haga (TGA) + :25
10. Georg Priedler (TGA) + :26

Sprint Classification
1. Marcel Kittel (EQS) 106
2. Maarten Tjallingii (TLJ) 80
3. Elia Viviani (SKY) 49

Mountains Classification
1. Maarten Tjallingii (TLJ) 5
2. Omar Fraile (DDD) 3
3. Julen Amezqueta (STH) 2

Giro d'Italia 2016 Preview

It's Grand Tour season. The first GT of the season, the Giro d'Italia, starts tomorrow, and we're here to wade in with our thoughts on who'll walk away from Milan at the end of the month with the maglia rosa.

My immediate instinct says Vincenzo Nibali. The Astana rider has by far the best Grand Tour pedigree of anyone in the race, having won all three, including the Giro in 2013. And with all due respect to the riders in this year's running, you could make a solid argument for Nibali to be the only true superstar in the GC contenders.

But for all the signs (including the massive home support) for Nibali, he's had an unremarkable season so far. His only win of note this year has been the overall in the Tour of Oman back in February. Sixth in the Tirreno-Adriatico two months ago does not suggest that his preparations have gone exactly to plan.

The same is most certainly not true of Alejandro Valverde, Movistar's preference for the race. After a quiet start to the season, Valverde hit form massively in April, winning the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon before showing he has his racecraft down by winning a sprint in La Fleche Wallonne after race-long pressure from Etixx-QuickStep.

While Astana's faith in Nibali seems to be waning, especially after some ill will between himself and Fabio Aru last year, Valverde's stock within Movistar seems to be rising as he heads towards the last few years of his career. The 2009 Vuelta a Espana winner has a strong team behind him, with Jose Joaquin Rojas, Carlos Betancur and Jose Herrada all likely to make themselves useful over the course of the next three weeks.

Movistar Team

Team Sky's bid for a first Grand Tour outside France is spearheaded by Mikel Landa, the man signed in the winter from Tinkoff for exactly this reason following third in last year's Giro. Whether Sky can successfully split their focus between Landa and sprinter Elia Viviani remains to be seen, but the team including Nicholas Roche,

Tinkoff are in the unusual position of not being in the upper echelons of either the GC or sprint riders going into a Grand Tour. Rafal Majka has just one GT podium to his name, last year's Vuelta where many teams capitulated, so 7th and 6th in the 2013 and 14 Giros may be a truer sign of his level, and he may need others to falter in order to reach his target of the podium.

On the sprint side of things, the maglia rossa is more than likely to end up across the shoulders of Marcel Kittel. The German has recovered from his disastrous 2015 season incredibly, leading Etixx-QuickStep to stage wins and overall victories already. With his sprint train already formed around him, you have to wonder who can stop him.

ANSA

The answer may come from his compatriot Andre Greipel. The Gorilla had a superb 2015, winning a stage in the Giro and four in the Tour, keeping the green jersey off Peter Sagan there for six days. Watching the two big Germans battling it out should be a real sight.

Elsewhere, this could be the year when Caleb Ewan announces himself on the world stage. After dominating in the early season in his native Australia, the diminutive Orica-GreenEDGE man might just spring a surprise by nipping through past his much larger rivals, and leaving a much smaller hole in the air to slipstream off.

We won't get any definite answers on any of these issues for a couple of weeks at least, more than likely, and obviously there's always the possibility for someone to spring a shock. Maybe Tom Dumoulin can recreate his astonishing Vuelta a Espana last year. Will Giacomo Nizzolo repeat his points jersey win from last year by pure attrition? Has Ilnur Zakarin's good form set him up for a Grand Tour podium?

There's only one way to find out.

Kev's Giro Predictions:

General Classification
1. Alejandro Valverde (MOV)
2. Vincenzo Nibali (AST)
3. Mikel Landa (SKY)

Points Classification
Marcel Kittel (EQS)

Biggest Surprise
Jay McCarthy (CPT)

Biggest Letdown
Lampre-Merida